Fraunhofer Institute for Manufacturing Technology and Advanced Materials IFAM
Project “Quarter by Quarter”
In the project “Quarter by Quarter”, experts from Fraunhofer IFAM are focusing on issues relating to the current and future supply of natural gas, which must be transformed to achieve climate neutrality by 2045. By looking at living quarters as a small-scale level, the supply structure in the respective local streets is analyzed and modeled for the future by adding further technical and socio-economic factors.
In this context, the various levels of energy supply need to be considered:
- The technical design of the future supply infrastructure
- The legal and regulatory framework conditions of the current natural gas supply
- Residents' acceptance of interventions in the existing energy infrastructure and their own supply systems
- Scenarios for the restructuring of the future natural gas supply
The views of local residents and other stakeholders are elaborated through quarter inspections and workshops so that local-specific information can be processed and taken into account in the technical and economic modeling of the future supply situation. In addition, various partners from the field are supporting the project with their findings and ideas to achieve a positive impact of the energy transition on both sides.
Legal and regulatory framework for natural gas supply
Against this background, the current legal framework for the supply of gas to consumer points, as well as existing or still necessary legal regulations for the rapidly declining gas supply, are being examined in collaboration with IKEM Berlin. First of all, regulatory requirements, laws and ordinances that have an influence on the development of heat supply options, the possible handling of the network fee effects of falling connection numbers in the gas network and possible false incentives for the actors involved are analyzed. On this basis, it is then necessary to formulate missing regulations or necessary adjustments to the existing system.
Techno-economic modeling of the future energy infrastructure
Estimating the future heating market is a major challenge, but according to the current state of the art, it is within the scope of limited supply possibilities based on renewable energies. To be able to make a well-founded statement about the future supply situation in the respective districts, the modeling of the heating market by the experts at Fraunhofer IFAM goes hand in hand with the network modeling of GWI Essen, so that the most realistic transformation paths possible can be identified. The central basis for this are the current (building) characteristics of the consumer points, the costs of the individual heat supply technologies, the technical limits of the current and future gas, electricity and possibly heating networks as well as regulatory obstacles in the future. Notably, the time aspect is key regarding the possible decommissioning of the gas network.
Successful implementation through acceptance
We are already experiencing how far-reaching the interventions in the energy infrastructure can be on the way to climate neutrality - and how vehemently these are sometimes opposed. It is therefore crucial to achieve the greatest possible acceptance of the measures among the stakeholders affected or involved. Against this background, a central research objective is to define the needs of the individual target groups and thus uncover options and willingness to act. In addition, it is important to consider not only the ecological but also the social sustainability of the heating transition in the context of living quarters. By testing various participation approaches and formats and identifying potential areas of conflict, the artec Sustainability Research Center Bremen will then be able to identify current deficits and possible solutions.
Measures for a successful transformation of the heating transition
The various research modules of the research project initially lead to various synergy effects over the course of the project. The ongoing exchange between the techno-economic modeling and the regulatory, legal and social framework conditions enables comprehensive testing of the heating market transformation in the respective districts. On this basis, feedback loops are repeatedly used for the individual focal points of the study to sharpen modeling approaches and question existing findings. Finally, the aim is to summarize the experiences of the analysis areas in a “heat transformation roadmap” with recommendations for action for municipalities, municipal utilities and the regulatory framework.